Showing posts with label Global financial meltdown. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Global financial meltdown. Show all posts

Monday, May 02, 2011

Get ready for the next round of financial turmoil

Most individuals and businesses don't spend a lot of time thinking about the global economy - after all that's what we pay our politicians and accountants for.

But the ramifications of corporate greed and political incompetence hits us all. Anyone with money in a superannuation fund, investments in the stock market, property, or simply in the business they are running, is vulnerable to problems in international financial markets.

The soaring price of gold is a stark indicator of a loss of confidence in currencies.

On Wednesday, November 3, 2010, Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) to stimulate the economy. The plan was to purchase $600 billion of U.S. Treasury securities by the middle 2011. It was just after the November 2, 2010 General Election, and most of the world missed it because the election dominated the headlines.

For those of us who aren't sure what 'quantitative easing' means, here's Wikipedia's definition:

Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by some central banks to stimulate their economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. The central bank buys government bonds and other financial assets, with new money that the bank creates electronically, in order to increase the money supply and the excess reserves of the banking system.

This allowed the U.S. Government to authorise the Treasury Department to print money. No real currency has actually been printed, but the Federal Reserve has been able to electronically credit each commercial bank, allowing them to buy maturing U.S. bonds and treasury notes as part of their liquidity reserves. The Federal Reserve started this even before the financial meltdown of 2008, a policy which is plunging the US (and the rest of the world) into a financial disaster which is likely to last for decades..

As well as the $600 billion quantitative easing announced last November, the Federal Reserve announced that it was "reinvesting" an additional $250 billion to $300 billion from the proceeds of its mortgage portfolio in U.S. Treasury securities - a total injection of about $900 billion.

If at some stage, the Federal Reserve concludes that the U.S. economy is not growing fast enough, and decides more quantitative easing is needed, a third round may begin and then we can all kiss economic stability goodbye! Many economists believe that the Federal Reserve is already out-of-control and that the global economic system is heading for disaster.

The sad thing is that the Federal Reserve seems to believe that the policy has been working.

Accumulated problems within the U.S. economy after many years of neglect, inaction and excessive spending on pointless wars, have now been aggravated by turmoil in the Middle East and natural disasters on a scale which is mind-boggling.

From November 2008 to March 2010, the Federal Reserve bought more than $1.7 trillion in mortgage backed securities and treasury bonds. Through its quantitative easing policy, it created a portfolio of U.S. bonds and notes purchased from banks totalling more than $2.5 trillion by the March 2011. Some critics see the rising price of oil and other commodities as indicators of broader price increases which are set to spiral out of control as the U.S. risks heading into hyper-inflation territory..

Some believe that the Federal Reserve strategy may have helped stabilise the economy in the short-term, but unemployment still remains high (8.8% at the end of March 2011). Monthly U.S. home sales are still close to record low levels. New construction is also at historic lows. Banks tightened their credit criteria and have not been not lending much. As at January 2011, American banks had excess reserves of $1 trillion as customers borrowed less and  bankrupcy rates increased.

Foreign countries are balking at U.S. government's quantitative easy policies, and the U.S. will either have to start paying higher interest rates on government debt in order to attract enough investors, or the Federal Reserve will just have to drop all pretence and permanently start buying up most of the debt. Either way, the financial world will never be the same.

Tuesday, March 08, 2011

Economics is a dirty word

Ben Bernanke
I've been farming for thirty years, but before that I was a finance journalist and it was interesting uncovering the greed of our leading corporate citizens and the stupidty of people involved in running our economic systems.

Every day it seems to be increasingly clear that world economies are facing collapse. The current unrest in arab countries is just one example – and there are serious implications for us all.

Once the major economies went off the gold standard (effectively rejecting the notion that a nation's currency should be underpinned by gold reserves), the rot set in.

The helter-skelter of boom and bust was inevitable with each crash likely to be bigger than the last. Governments tried to maintain growth by fiddling with taxes, introducing crocks like compulsory superannuation and diverting the population by the old trick of starting wars whenever they felt like it, but the costs were always greater than the benefits which were achieved (leaving aside the human pain and suffering).

The recent 'Global Financial Meltdown' caused by corporate greed and government inaction will pale into insignificance when the next crunch happens – and it could be anytime.

When the United States dollar loses its status as the world's reserve currency, its frantic printing of dollar bills and its overwhelming debt levels will lead to an ugly exchange rate. The result will be hyper-inflation on commodities such as food and there are likely to be yet more revolutions in the world!

Going back through thousands of years of economic history there is clearly one fact: No country has ever printed its way to prosperity, all who have tried have wound up with hyperinflation, war or have simply slipped into oblivion (sometimes all three).

With someone like Ben Bernanke pulling the financial strings in the US, the outcome is inevitable and unfortunately the US collapse will take the rest of the world with it.

It will probably take 20 years for some kind of order to be re-established and unquestionably it will be a very different world to the one we know.

Things like tax-effective accounting, margin loans, derivative debt, tax havens, market mechanisms, the economic imperative, negative gearing, futures trading, deficit spending and corporate greed will be seen as some of the evils which brought the empire down.

The only economy which has succeded long term is the village economy. Happy to talk to you anytime if you'd like more info..